Tampa Real Estate Market Update for September 2014
September's numbers for real
estate activity across Hillsborough County went pretty much as anticipated,
with most areas demonstrating the anticipated year end market slow down, so we
will not post graph depicting it.
Instead we have some charts below that will show you just how cyclical
real estate is within a year's time.
These cycles are evident in short term charts as well a long term charts
where a full cycle will run somewhere around 17 years.
This chart below depicts
sale activity over a 5 year period. Year
after year the market bottoms around December/January, only to pick up and
accelerate into Summer, meanders a bit and then slows down into year end. This pattern has been repeating year after
year. Until this trend changes, we
assume it will continue.
This next chart show the
number of Home Listings in the market for the last 5 years. Notice the plunge at the end of 2010 and
subsequent "recovery" around July 2013. One, image a business where activity drops by
about 60%? Two, it is obvious that the
level of activity has little to no effect on the overall cycle. Needless to say, the housing inventory is a
long, long way from reaching the levels of just a few years ago.
Not convinced yet? Below we provide two charts from Google Trends. The first chart depicts the search patterns
for the term Home for Sale. The second
chart show the search patterns for the term Real Estate. These charts cover about 10 years in length,
and check out how the pattern repeats year after year: low levels of searches at year end, high
levels during Summer. This is no
coincidence that it correlates to the patterns for actual real estate
activity. Why? We believe it's because it is all based on
human psychology and "group think."
But then again, we are not psychologists, just Realtors. For anyone not aware yet, psychology plays a
big roll in real estate, always has and always will, in our opinion. See the charts below'
With what we have shown
above we hope you understand how real estate tends to move, and if things slow
down in the next 3-4 months, as we think it will, it's all part of the market
cycle. With that said, aberrations do
occur, and that is why we watch things like a hawk, to understand what is happening
in the market and let our clients and readers know what we think.
Hope you enjoyed this months
report.
This Tampa Real Estate Report for September 2014 has been brought to you by Mary and David Diaz. Thank you.
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